As the US economy has remained resilient in the beginning of 2024, rate cut expectations for the Federal Reserve this year have fallen (US News & World Report, Yahoo [Bloomberg]). Some market participants are pondering the chances of a rate increase (MSN [MarketWatch]). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count, and the date a cut would take effect is immaterial. The last time the Federal Reserve announced an increase to the US federal funds rate was 26 July 2023, with the last time it announced a cut being 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Statement 26 July 2023, Federal Reserve - FOMC Statement 15 March 2020). If still open, the question will close as of the Federal Reserve releasing its FOMC statement as scheduled for 7 November 2024.

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