Started Jun 30, 2021 09:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 25, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?

Mozambique's ongoing insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado intensified in 2020 (BBC, Al Jazeera, International Crisis Group). On 23 June 2021, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) "approved the Mandate for the SADC Standby Force Mission to the Republic of Mozambique, to be deployed in support of Mozambique to combat of terrorism and acts of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado," though details on when and a force of what size remain to be determined (SADC, Al Jazeera, Translators Without Borders). For the purposes of this question, "forces" means national military forces or law enforcement.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 September 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

90%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

64

Forecast
Count

187

Crowd Brier Score

0.0385


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.027
2.
-0.027
3.
-0.027
4.
-0.027
5.
-0.027

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