Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?

Started Jun 30, 2021 09:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 25, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Mozambique's ongoing insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado intensified in 2020 (BBC, Al Jazeera, International Crisis Group). On 23 June 2021, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) "approved the Mandate for the SADC Standby Force Mission to the Republic of Mozambique, to be deployed in support of Mozambique to combat of terrorism and acts of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado," though details on when and a force of what size remain to be determined (SADC, Al Jazeera, Translators Without Borders). For the purposes of this question, "forces" means national military forces or law enforcement.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 187
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.026574
2.
-0.026574
3.
-0.026574
4.
-0.026516
5.
-0.026516

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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