Started Jul 09, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?

Home prices have been surging in the US in 2021 (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for October 2021 are first available, typically in December.

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The question closed "Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 250.00000 0%
Between 250.00000 and 260.00000, inclusive 0%
Higher than 260.00000 but lower than 270.00000 26%
Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive 72%
Higher than 280.00000 2%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 356
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.236
3.
-0.206
4.
-0.205
5.
-0.199

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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