Started Jul 21, 2021 02:27PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 18, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?

Despite having one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, the UK began facing a new surge in COVID-19 cases in late June 2021 (NPR, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK government under "Cases by date reported" (Coronavirus.data.co.uk). If the question is still open as of 17 December 2021, data available for resolution will be evaluated on 24 December 2021.

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Name Probability
Before 11 September 2021 63%
Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021 27%
Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021 9%
Not before 18 December 2021 1%

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