Started Jul 21, 2021 02:28PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?

Amazon is facing continued antitrust scrutiny in 2021, and there have been calls for it, among other things, to spin off its cloud computing platform, AWS (WBUR, Protocol, Business Insider, Investopedia). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.

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Name Probability
Yes 6%

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