Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?
After success for his party in June 2021 elections, Prime Minister Ahmed is facing a variety of challenges in different regions of the country, including Tigray (NPR, BBC). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional" means events not conforming to the legal and political processes as laid out in the constitution of Ethiopia (e.g., a coup) (Ethiopian Constitution). The death of Ahmed by any means would close the question "Yes." For the purposes of this question, the House of Federation's approval of allowing Ahmed to stay in office after his mandate was to expire due to the COVID-19 pandemic is considered to have been constitutional (Ethiopian News Agency, Al Jazeera). In the event the status of the prime minister is not immediately clear, e.g., see President Erdogan during the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey (BBC), the question would not be closed unless and until his being deposed is clear from credible open source reporting.