Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?

After success for his party in June 2021 elections, Prime Minister Ahmed is facing a variety of challenges in different regions of the country, including Tigray (NPR, BBC). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional" means events not conforming to the legal and political processes as laid out in the constitution of Ethiopia (e.g., a coup) (Ethiopian Constitution). The death of Ahmed by any means would close the question "Yes." For the purposes of this question, the House of Federation's approval of allowing Ahmed to stay in office after his mandate was to expire due to the COVID-19 pandemic is considered to have been constitutional (Ethiopian News Agency, Al Jazeera). In the event the status of the prime minister is not immediately clear, e.g., see President Erdogan during the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey (BBC), the question would not be closed unless and until his being deposed is clear from credible open source reporting.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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