Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 21, 2021 08:30AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" fell to 15% or lower?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' "Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (COVID-19 module)" dataset (ONS, click the green button under "Current edition of this dataset" to download the file). In their release dated 27 August 2021, the ONS reported that 21% of those working "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" (see "%" under "Working population" in Table 5). Links to prior datasets may be found in the sheet "Previous Publications." In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 17 December 2021. As these data are occasionally reported elsewhere on the Thursday prior to release, the question would close as of the day before a dataset release reporting a figure of 15% or lower.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 October 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 50.00%
No 50.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 143
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.447
5.
-1.269

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username