Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 21, 2021 08:30AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" fell to 15% or lower?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' "Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (COVID-19 module)" dataset (ONS, click the green button under "Current edition of this dataset" to download the file). In their release dated 27 August 2021, the ONS reported that 21% of those working "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" (see "%" under "Working population" in Table 5). Links to prior datasets may be found in the sheet "Previous Publications." In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 17 December 2021. As these data are occasionally reported elsewhere on the Thursday prior to release, the question would close as of the day before a dataset release reporting a figure of 15% or lower.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 October 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

50%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

69

Forecast
Count

143

Crowd Brier Score

1.2381


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.447
5.
-1.269

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