Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?

In recent months, the global supply chain has been affected by, among other things, disrupted factory production, increased transportation costs, foreign port closures, and congested domestic ports (CNN, Los Angeles Times, Time). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined using November 2021 data as reported by the Port of Los Angeles for TEUs, which is a standardized measurement of volume for cargo containers (Port of Los Angeles). For January 2021, the Port of Los Angeles reported 835,516.20 TEUs.

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The question closed "Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 800,000 0%
Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive 10%
More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,000,000 75%
1,000,000 or more 15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 393
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.401
2.
-0.311
3.
-0.277
4.
-0.238

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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