Tim Harford asks:
How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?
Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
In recent months, the global supply chain has been affected by, among other things, disrupted factory production, increased transportation costs, foreign port closures, and congested domestic ports (CNN, Los Angeles Times, Time). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined using November 2021 data as reported by the Port of Los Angeles for TEUs, which is a standardized measurement of volume for cargo containers (Port of Los Angeles). For January 2021, the Port of Los Angeles reported 835,516.20 TEUs.
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The question closed "Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 800,000 | 0% | |
| Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive | 10% | |
| More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,000,000 | 75% | |
| 1,000,000 or more | 15% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 75 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 220 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 393 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 615 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
