Tim Harford asks:
How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?
Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with a record number of job openings reported for June 2021 (US Chamber of Commerce, Yahoo, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for November 2021, expected in January 2022 (BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule). For May 2021, the number of job openings for "Trade, transportation, and utilities" was 1,687 (in thousands) (JOLTS - June 2021, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under "JOLTS Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)." For "1 Select one or more Industries," select "Trade, transportation, and utilities." For "2 Select one or more States or Regions," find and select "Total US." For "3 Select one or more Areas," select "All Areas." For "4 Select one or more Data Elements," find and select "Job openings." For "5 Select one or more Size Classes," find and select "All size classes." For "6 Select Rate and/or Level," leave only "Level - In Thousands" checked. For "7 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data."
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The question closed "Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 1.4 million | 0% | |
Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million | 0% | |
Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive | 33% | |
More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million | 56% | |
2.2 million or more | 11% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 49 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 205 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |