Started Sep 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?

Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with a record number of job openings reported for June 2021 (US Chamber of Commerce, Yahoo, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for November 2021, expected in January 2022 (BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule). For May 2021, the number of job openings for "Trade, transportation, and utilities" was 1,687 (in thousands) (JOLTS - June 2021, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under "JOLTS Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)." For "1 Select one or more Industries," select "Trade, transportation, and utilities." For "2 Select one or more States or Regions," find and select "Total US." For "3 Select one or more Areas," select "All Areas." For "4 Select one or more Data Elements," find and select "Job openings." For "5 Select one or more Size Classes," find and select "All size classes." For "6 Select Rate and/or Level," leave only "Level - In Thousands" checked. For "7 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.4 million 0%
Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive 0%
More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million 0%
Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive 33%
More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million 56%
2.2 million or more 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 205
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.244
2.
-0.159
3.
-0.146
4.
-0.105
5.
-0.095

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username