Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How much cash on hand will the following *three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021?

By midyear 2021, former President Trump's political groups had over $102 million in cash on hand (Politico, ABC News, donaldjtrump.com). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Election Commission for the second half of 2021, expected in early 2022. For the purposes of this question, the three relevant Trump-affiliated PACs are:

  1. Save America (FEC.gov - Save America, Mid-year Report 2021)
  2. Make America Great Again Action Inc (FEC.gov - Make America Great Again Action IncMid-year Report 2021)
  3. Make America Great Again PAC (FEC.gov - Make America Great Again PACMid-year Report 2021)

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NOTE 7 October 2021: *This week, a new Super PAC, "MAGA, Again!," announced that it was replacing "MAGA Action" as the only Trump-approved Super PAC. As part of this, "Net assets of MAGA Action will be transferred to MAGA, Again!" Therefore, the cash on hand for MAGA, Again! will be included in the combined total for resolution (The Hill).


The question closed "Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $100 million 24%
Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive 56%
More than $150 million but less than $200 million 18%
$200 million or more 2%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 171
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.083
2.
-0.08
3.
-0.067
4.
-0.064
5.
-0.064

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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