Started Sep 24, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 10, 2021 09:00PM UTC

What will be Rivian's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?

Electric vehicle maker Rivian is reportedly aiming to go public in late October or November of 2021 (CNBC, Muscle Cars and Trucks). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Rivian goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).

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The question closed "More than $70 billion but less than $90 billion" with a closing date of 10 November 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $50 billion 1%
Between $50 billion and $70 billion, inclusive 37%
More than $70 billion but less than $90 billion 60%
Between $90 billion and $110 billion, inclusive 2%
More than $110 billion 0%
Rivian will not trade publicly before 1 January 2022 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 114
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.267
3.
-0.232
4.
-0.201
5.
-0.188

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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