Started Oct 01, 2021 04:00AM UTC   •   Closed Dec 30, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will be the closing yield for the US 10 yr Treasury on 30 December 2022?

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The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC). As of 28 September 2021, the yield was 1.539%.

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The question closed "Higher than 3% but lower than 4%" with a closing date of 30 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 0% 0%
Between 0% and 1%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 1% but lower than 2% 2%
Between 2% and 3%, inclusive 7%
Higher than 3% but lower than 4% 75%
4% or higher 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 1786
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
jacobosilva
-0.378
2.
Havardhk
-0.332
3.
Jcpharrid
-0.283
4.
SE_Meyer
-0.25
5.
MC2188
-0.25

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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