Started Oct 01, 2021 04:00AM UTC   •   Closed Dec 30, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will be the closing yield for the US 10 yr Treasury on 30 December 2022?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC). As of 28 September 2021, the yield was 1.539%.

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The question closed "Higher than 3% but lower than 4%" with a closing date of 30 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 0% 0%
Between 0% and 1%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 1% but lower than 2% 2%
Between 2% and 3%, inclusive 7%
Higher than 3% but lower than 4% 75%
4% or higher 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 1786
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.378
2.
-0.332
3.
-0.283
4.
-0.25
5.
-0.25

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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