What will be the closing yield for the US 10 yr Treasury on 30 December 2022?

Started Oct 01, 2021 04:00AM UTC
Closed Dec 30, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC). As of 28 September 2021, the yield was 1.539%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Higher than 3% but lower than 4%" with a closing date of 30 December 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 0% 0%
Between 0% and 1%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 1% but lower than 2% 2%
Between 2% and 3%, inclusive 7%
Higher than 3% but lower than 4% 75%
4% or higher 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 1786
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.378
2.
-0.332
3.
-0.283
4.
-0.25
5.
-0.25

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username