Started Oct 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?

Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (US News & World Report, BBC, ABC News). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 455
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.013
2.
-0.013
4.
-0.013

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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