Started Oct 22, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for July 2022?

Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the third consecutive month in August 2021 (FOX Business, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for July 2022, expected in September 2022 (BLS - JOLTS). For July 2021, the number of job openings for "Total US" was 11,098 (in thousands) (JOLTS - August 2021, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under "JOLTS Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)." For "1 Select one or more Industries," select "Total nonfarm." For "2 Select one or more States or Regions," find and select "Total US." For "3 Select one or more Areas," select "All Areas." For "4 Select one or more Data Elements," find and select "Job openings." For "5 Select one or more Size Classes," find and select "All size classes." For "6 Select Rate and/or Level," leave only "Level - In Thousands" checked. For "7 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data."

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The question closed "More than 11 million" with a closing date of 1 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 6 million 0%
Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive 0%
More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million 0%
Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive 0%
More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million 24%
Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive 62%
More than 11 million 14%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 157
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 610
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.612
2.
-0.512
3.
-0.507
4.
-0.491
5.
-0.445

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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