Question 34 of 90 in In the News 2022
Started Oct 22, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (Deutsche Welle, France 24, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Current Crowd Forecast

28%

Chance
+3.00% in last 24 hours

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username