Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will a Latin American or Caribbean nation cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Newsweek). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including nine in Latin America and Caribbean (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 9 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 50
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 103
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.674
2.
-0.595
4.
-0.496
5.
-0.326

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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