Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?

Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

China's only military base in Africa is in the country of Djibouti, but it is looking at possible bases in other African countries (Diplomat, AP). Military bases for civilian or mixed-use military and civilian purposes would count (Reuters). Public disclosure of ongoing negotiations would not be sufficient to resolve the question as "yes" (BBC).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.09%
No 98.91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 110
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 495
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.19
2.
-0.19
3.
-0.19
5.
-0.187

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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