Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
China's only military base in Africa is in the country of Djibouti, but it is looking at possible bases in other African countries (Diplomat, AP). Military bases for civilian or mixed-use military and civilian purposes would count (Reuters). Public disclosure of ongoing negotiations would not be sufficient to resolve the question as "yes" (BBC).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1.09% | |
No | 98.91% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 110 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 495 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |