Started Nov 05, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

JamesHaven asks:

What percent of Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program will earn shared savings in 2021?

The Medicare Shared Savings Program rewards health organizations, known as Accountable Care Organizations, that lower expected healthcare spending for a defined patient population; rewards are defined as "shared savings" (CMS.gov - Shared Savings Program, CMS.gov - ACO Performance Data, Healthcare Finance, Rev Cycle Intelligence, Health Affairs). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data for 2021 as first released by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), expected in August 2022. For 2020, 67% of Accountable Care Organizations participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program earned shared savings (CMS.gov - Performance Year Financial and Quality Results).

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The question closed "More than 50% but less than 60%" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 40% 0%
Between 40% and 50%, inclusive 0%
More than 50% but less than 60% 1%
Between 60% and 70%, inclusive 90%
More than 70% but less than 80% 9%
80% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 249
Number of Forecasts 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.574
2.
-0.57
3.
-0.248
4.
-0.136
5.
-0.113

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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