Question 14 of 99 in In the News 2022
Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?

The BRI was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping (Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House, Brookings Institution, Diplomat). As of the launch of this question, at least 139 countries have signed a BRI memorandum of understanding (Belt and Road Portal [in Mandarin], Council on Foreign Relations). Signings by subnational governments would not count (e.g., France 24).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
0 0.00% +0.00%
1 or 2 30.00% +6.00%
3 or 4 36.00% +5.00%
5 or 6 21.00% -3.00%
7 or more 13.00% -8.00%

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