Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 21, 2022 04:28PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?

The BRI was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping (Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House, Brookings Institution, Diplomat). As of the launch of this question, at least 139 countries have signed a BRI memorandum of understanding (Belt and Road Portal [in Mandarin], Council on Foreign Relations). Signings by subnational governments would not count (e.g., France 24).

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The question closed "7 or more" with a closing date of 12 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 0%
1 or 2 0%
3 or 4 0%
5 or 6 2%
7 or more 98%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 106
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.715
2.
-0.656
4.
-0.45
5.
-0.432

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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