The Economist asks:
Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?
Closed May 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 (Economist, Atlantic, Belfast Telegraph, Northern Ireland Act 1998). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., NI Assembly, see Table 5.1).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Sinn Féin" with a closing date of 5 May 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Democratic Unionist Party||21%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||156|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 229|
|Number of Forecasts||239|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 637|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|