Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 (Economist, Atlantic, Belfast Telegraph, Northern Ireland Act 1998). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., NI Assembly, see Table 5.1).

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The question closed "Sinn Féin" with a closing date of 5 May 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Democratic Unionist Party 21%
Sinn Féin 79%
Another party 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 239
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.178
3.
-0.178
4.
-0.178
5.
-0.178

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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