Started Dec 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What will be Russia's annual rate of inflation in September 2022?

As in many other countries, inflation has been on the rise in Russia in 2021 (Moscow Times, Bloomberg). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data for September 2021 when monthly IMF data for September 2022 are first available, expected by November 2022 (IMF). On the page, change "Country" on the upper left of the page to "Russian Federation," then see "Consumer Price Index, All items." For August 2021 (2021M08), the annual rate of inflation was 6.69617%, calculated by dividing the index figure for August 2021 (2021M08) by the index figure for August 2020 (2020M08) and subtracting 1.

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NOTE 12 August 2022: As many of you are aware, the IMF has not been updating Russian CPI data in recent months. After a few exchanges with the IMF, we learned today that the IMF had received this data from OECD, which no longer reports Russian CPI data. While the IMF is working on ways to resume publication of Russian CPI data, the timing of that resumption is uncertain. That said, the Russian Federal State Statistics Service is still publishing CPI data, which is available from Trading Economics. Therefore, the outcome will be determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi).


The question closed "Higher than 9.0%" with a closing date of 1 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 3.0% 0%
Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 5.0% but lower than 7.0% 2%
Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive 10%
Higher than 9.0% 88%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 229
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 881
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.204
2.
-0.14
3.
-0.121
4.
-0.111
5.
-0.104

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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