Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?
Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 March 2022.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Number of Forecasters||142|
|average for questions in their first 6 months: 225|
|Number of Forecasts||596|
|average for questions in their first 6 months: 550|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||about average|