Started Dec 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 23, 2022 01:31PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?

Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 March 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 142
average for questions in their first 6 months: 225
Number of Forecasts 596
average for questions in their first 6 months: 550
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.772
2.
-0.772
4.
-0.761
5.
-0.704

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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