Started Dec 30, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 17, 2022 04:30AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?

Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 (Economist, US News & World Report, CNN). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO, SDG Knowledge Hub).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 16 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6.00%
No 94.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 220
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 446
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-1.632

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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