Started Dec 30, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 24, 2022 05:00AM UTC

Nick-Nolan asks:

Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?

Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others (CNN, Al Jazeera, BBC). For the purposes of this question, "invading Ukraine" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial.

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REMINDER 22 February 2022: The question will remain open so long as two or more answer options remain possible outcomes. Also, we do not close answer options on open questions (see FAQ #13 under "Question Clarifications & Resolutions" https://www.gjopen.com/faq).


The question closed "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory" with a closing date of 23 February 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only 0%
Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only 0%
Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory 100%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 377
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 2161
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.118
2.
-1.098
4.
-1.004
5.
-0.946

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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