Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?
Closed Feb 24, 2022 05:00AM UTC
Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others (CNN, Al Jazeera, BBC). For the purposes of this question, "invading Ukraine" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial.
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REMINDER 22 February 2022: The question will remain open so long as two or more answer options remain possible outcomes. Also, we do not close answer options on open questions (see FAQ #13 under "Question Clarifications & Resolutions" https://www.gjopen.com/faq).
The question closed "Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory" with a closing date of 23 February 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only||0%|
|Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only||0%|
|Yes, invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory||100%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||377|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 230|
|Number of Forecasts||2161|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 638|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|