Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 30, 2022 02:19PM UTC

Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?

While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 (Deutsche Welle, 38 North). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 March 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 223
Number of Forecasts 334
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 547
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.598
2.
-0.598
3.
-0.566
4.
-0.542
5.
-0.519

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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