Started Jun 21, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC

&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Will the winner of the popular vote in the US presidential election also win the electoral college?

This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the electoral college, while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote (Time, Reuters, NY Times) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated


For more information on the the popular vote and the electoral college see: National Archives and Records Administration 1, 2. Four presidents, including George Bush in the 2000 election, have been elected without winning the popular vote (FactCheck.org). Only forecasts made prior to election day will be scored. Recommended Questions: Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96.00%
No 4.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 702
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 1667
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.873
3.
-1.509
4.
-1.423
5.
-1.275

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username