Started Feb 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 16, 2022 08:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will US federal legislation providing for new tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs) become law before 19 August 2022?

New EV tax credits are included with President Biden's Build Back Better Act, which stalled in the Senate in late 2021 (CNBC, cnet). Legislation expanding existing tax credit programs would count. Tax credits for plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs) would also count (Department of Energy).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 16 August 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 239
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.962
2.
-0.962
3.
-0.918
4.
-0.889
5.
-0.886

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username