Started Mar 25, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 01, 2022 09:00PM UTC

erikbays asks:

When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds next invert?

When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED).

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The question closed "Before 23 April 2022" with a closing date of 1 April 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 23 April 2022 100%
Between 23 April 2022 and 20 May 2022 0%
Between 21 May 2022 and 17 June 2022 0%
Not before 18 June 2022 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.206
4.
-0.054
5.
-0.051

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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