When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds next invert?
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED).
The question closed "Before 23 April 2022" with a closing date of 1 April 2022.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Before 23 April 2022||100%|
|Between 23 April 2022 and 20 May 2022||0%|
|Between 21 May 2022 and 17 June 2022||0%|
|Not before 18 June 2022||0%|
|Number of Forecasters||39|
|average for questions in their first 6 months: 223|
|Number of Forecasts||93|
|average for questions in their first 6 months: 548|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||about average|