erikbays asks:
When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds next invert?
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED).
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The question closed "Before 23 April 2022" with a closing date of 1 April 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 23 April 2022 | 100% | |
| Between 23 April 2022 and 20 May 2022 | 0% | |
| Between 21 May 2022 and 17 June 2022 | 0% | |
| Not before 18 June 2022 | 0% |
Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 39 |
| average for questions in their first 6 months: 223 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 93 |
| average for questions in their first 6 months: 548 | |
| Accuracy of participants | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | about average |
