Started Apr 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 17, 2022 08:01AM UTC

erikbays and David Epstein ask:

Before 17 December 2022, will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will begin accepting yuan as payment for oil from China?

Saudi Arabia and the People's Republic of China are reportedly discussing the use of Chinese yuan as payment for Saudi oil (Wall Street Journal, The Hill, Al-Monitor). The question would close upon a public announcement from Saudi Arabia. An announcement would not have to indicate that Saudi Arabia would exclusively accept yuan for payment. The date any agreement to accept payment in yuan would take effect is immaterial, but conditional and/or indeterminate announcements (e.g., if conditionals are met in the future, at some point in the future) would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 17 December 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.94%
No 95.06%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 543
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username