Started Apr 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 07, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?

Record-high oil and gasoline prices have put a renewed focus on oil and gas production in the US, particularly in the Permian Basin (Politico, Dallas Fed - Permian Basin). The Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count "is a weekly census of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada" (Baker Hughes - Rig Count FAQs). The outcome will be determined using data for the "Permian" first released in October 2022 (Baker Hughes - Rig Count). To download the data, click "North American Rotary Rig Count (Jan 2000 - Current)" to download the spreadsheet. Navigate to the sheet named "US Count by Basin," find the "Permian" columns, and sum the figures under "Oil" and "Gas." The first October data are expected on 7 October 2022. Figures marked "Misc" are immaterial.

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The question closed "Between 326 and 375" with a closing date of 7 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 275 1%
Between 275 and 325 2%
Between 326 and 375 77%
Between 376 and 425 13%
Between 426 and 475 3%
More than 475 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 61
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 291
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.045
2.
-0.038
3.
-0.037
5.
-0.032

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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