The Wharton Future of Work Conference asks:

How many part-time workers will there be in the US in February 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?

Started Apr 06, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The number of part-time workers in the US has recovered some since the beginning of the pandemic but is still below pre-pandemic levels of approximately 27 million. The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the by the BLS for February 2023, expected in March 2023 (BLS - Release Calendar). As of the March 2022 Employment Situation report, the number of part-time workers for February 2022 was 25,801,000 (BLS - February 2020 Employment Situation, see "Part-time workers" in Table A-9 Selected employment indicators). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment. Under "Monthly," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Labor Force Statistics." For "1 Sex," select "Both Sexes." For "2 Race," find and select "All Races." For "3 Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity," find and select "All Origins." For "4 Age," find and select "16 years and over." For "5 Education (25 years and over only)," select "All education levels." For "6 Marital Status," find and select "N/A." For "7 Labor Force Status," find and select "Employed part time (persons who usually work less than 35 hours)." For "8 Seasonal," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked. For "9 Periodicity, leave only "Monthly" checked, then click "Get Data" (note that pop-up blockers may obstruct proper functioning).

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The question closed "27 million or more" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 25 million 4%
Between 25 million and 26 million, inclusive 19%
More than 26 million but fewer than 27 million 46%
27 million or more 31%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 150
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 403
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.450423
2.
-0.450423
3.
-0.450423
4.
-0.450423
5.
-0.448793

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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