Started Apr 06, 2022 04:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The Wharton Future of Work Conference asks:

How many job "quits" in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for February 2023?

Labor shortages in the US continue, exacerbated by high levels of Americans quitting their jobs, a phenomenon called "The Great Resignation" (CNBC, CBS News). Per the BLS, "Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee." The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for February 2023, expected in March or April 2023 (BLS - JOLTS Release Calendar). For February 2022, the preliminary number of job quits was 4,352,000 (BLS - February 2022 JOLTS Release, see "Total" in Table 4). For historical data, visit: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. Under "JOLTS Databases," select "ONE SCREEN" from "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)." For "1 Select one or more Industries," select "Total nonfarm." For "2 Select one or more States or Regions," find and select "Total US." For "3 Select one or more Areas," select "All Areas." For "4 Select one or more Data Elements," find and select "Quits." For "5 Select one or more Size Classes," find and select "All size classes." For "6 Select Rate and/or Level," leave only "Level - In Thousands" checked. For "7 Select Seasonal Adjustment," leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked, then click "Get Data" (note that pop-up blockers may obstruct proper functioning). As of launch, the average monthly number of quits in 2019 was 3,517,000.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 3.0 million 6.00% +0.00% +0.00% -1.00%
Between 3.0 million and 3.5 million, inclusive 24.00% +0.00% +0.00% +2.00%
More than 3.5 million but fewer than 4.0 million 36.00% +0.00% +3.00% +3.00%
Between 4.0 million and 4.5 million, inclusive 28.00% +0.00% -3.00% -4.00%
More than 4.5 million 6.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

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