Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

What will be the annualized rate of US housing starts for October 2022?

The rate of housing starts, a measure of new home construction in the US, faces an uncertain future due to rising interest rates, commodity inflation, and labor market uncertainties (CNBC, Bankrate, FOX17). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using data provided by the US Census Bureau as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November (FRED). For October 2021, housing starts totaled 1.552 million.

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The question closed "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.4 million 26%
Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive 64%
More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million 7%
Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive 3%
More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million 0%
2.2 million or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 430
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.08
2.
-0.078
3.
-0.065
5.
-0.059

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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