David Epstein asks:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?

Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

US inflation hit multi-decade highs in early 2022, due to various factors including monetary policy, supply chain issues, and consequences from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (AP, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for "All items" in January 2023 (BLS). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.

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The question closed "Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 3.5% 2%
Between 3.5% and 5.0%, inclusive 3%
Higher than 5.0% but lower than 6.5% 10%
Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive 80%
Higher than 8.0% but lower than 9.5% 5%
9.5% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 112
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 631
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.093
3.
-0.084
5.
-0.068

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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