David Epstein asks:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?

Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

US inflation hit multi-decade highs in early 2022, due to various factors including monetary policy, supply chain issues, and consequences from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (AP, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for "All items" in January 2023 (BLS). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 3.5% 2%
Between 3.5% and 5.0%, inclusive 3%
Higher than 5.0% but lower than 6.5% 10%
Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive 80%
Higher than 8.0% but lower than 9.5% 5%
9.5% or higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 112
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 631
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username