Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing May 06, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023?

After China and the Solomon Islands signed a security agreement in April 2022, Australia and other countries are rushing to secure closer relations with other Oceania countries (Guardian, BBC, CBS News). Australia and PNG have been discussing the development of a bilateral security treaty for years (Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - CSEP 2020, Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - 28th Papua New Guinea-Australia Ministerial Forum Joint Communiqué 2021). Ratification by the parties to the treaty would not be required for a "Yes" resolution.

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NOTE 10 May 2022: An example of a bilateral defense treaty is the one between Australia and the Solomon Islands (Australasian Legal Information Institute).

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 33.19% +0.00% +2.31% -22.16%
No 66.81% -0.00% -2.31% +22.16%

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