Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023?

Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 06, 2023 07:01AM UTC

After China and the Solomon Islands signed a security agreement in April 2022, Australia and other countries are rushing to secure closer relations with other Oceania countries (Guardian, BBC, CBS News). Australia and PNG have been discussing the development of a bilateral security treaty for years (Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - CSEP 2020, Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - 28th Papua New Guinea-Australia Ministerial Forum Joint Communiqué 2021). Ratification by the parties to the treaty would not be required for a "Yes" resolution.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 10 May 2022: An example of a bilateral defense treaty is the one between Australia and the Solomon Islands (Australasian Legal Information Institute).


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 May 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 13.50%
No 86.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 715
Average for questions older than 6 months: 606
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.752
2.
-0.728
3.
-0.611
4.
-0.571
5.
-0.498

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username