David Epstein asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022?

Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 20, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (BBC, CNBC, Guardian). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 August 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.74%
No 98.26%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 77
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 326
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username