Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 20, 2022 07:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022?

The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (BBC, CNBC, Guardian). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.74%
No 98.26%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 77
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 326
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 537
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
3.
-0.001
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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