Started Jun 10, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 02, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What will voter turnout be in the 2022 presidency elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia)?

The country of Bosnia is scheduled to hold elections on 2 October 2022 amid high political and ethnic tensions and the prospect of a potential Croat boycott (Al Jazeera, US News & World Report, Euractiv). Bosnia has a unique executive system, where the presidency consists of three members: "one Bosniac and one Croat, each directly elected from the territory of the Federation [of Bosnia and Herzegovina], and one Serb directly elected from the territory of the Republika Srpska" (BiH Constitution, see Article V). The outcome will be determined using results as published by the Central Election Commission (Central Election Commission of Bosnia). In the 2018 election, the turnout was 50.44% (Central Election Commission of Bosnia - 2018 Election Results, calculated by dividing the number of "Valid ballots" [1,692,316] by the "Number of voters" [3,355,429]). If the election is rescheduled to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the election is postponed to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close "Presidency elections will not be held in 2022" upon the announcement of that postponement.

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The question closed "More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%" with a closing date of 2 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 44.0% 1%
Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive 7%
More than 48.0% but less than 52.0% 55%
Between 52.0% and 56.0%, inclusive 32%
More than 56.0% 5%
Presidency elections will not be held in 2022 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 24
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 117
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.839
2.
-0.312
3.
-0.177
4.
-0.164
5.
-0.121

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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