Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2023?

Two years after a deadly clash left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain high (Diplomat, The National, Outlook India, Al Jazeera). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 5.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
No 95.00% -0.00% -0.00% -0.00%

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