Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many games will the Baltimore Orioles have won in the 2022 MLB season as of 1 August 2022?

The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022. The Orioles had 35 wins as of 30 June 2022, and they are scheduled to play the Texas Rangers on 1 August 2022 (ESPN). For the purposes of this question, a game that commences on 1 August 2022 will count toward the total regardless of when that game ends unless play is postponed to a subsequent day.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 47 and 52" with a closing date of 31 July 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 41 0%
Between 41 and 46 0%
Between 47 and 52 100%
Between 53 and 58 0%
More than 58 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 179
Number of Forecasts 194
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 390
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.034
2.
-0.024
3.
-0.024
4.
-0.018

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username