Started Jul 23, 2022 12:00AM UTC   •   Closed Aug 02, 2022 03:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will Speaker Nancy Pelosi officially announce that she will visit or has visited Taiwan?

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was expected to visit Taiwan in April 2022, but the visit was canceled (Guardian, Politico). A new potential visit has raised concerns about the Chinese reaction to it (CNN, Politico). An official announcement from her office would count. If Pelosi officially announces that she has visited Taiwan or is in Taiwan, presence in the country must take place in 2022 to count.

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The question closed "Between 28 July and 31 August 2022" with a closing date of 2 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 28 July 2022 0%
Between 28 July and 31 August 2022 100%
Between 1 September and 31 October 2022 0%
Between 1 November and 31 December 2022 0%
Not before 1 January 2023 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 176
Number of Forecasts 131
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 386
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.635
2.
-0.537
3.
-0.433
5.
-0.302

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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