Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC

DippySkippy asks:

Before 8 November 2022, will American basketball player Brittney Griner leave Russia?

Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, the US is reportedly negotiating for the release of Brittney Griner and other Americans imprisoned in Russia (CNN, ABC News).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.78%
No 99.22%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 123
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 451
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.038
2.
-0.038
3.
-0.037
4.
-0.037
5.
-0.037

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username