Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Feb 18, 2023 08:01AM UTC

tabhuth asks:

Between 12 August 2022 and 18 February 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and/or state crime in the US?

Former President Trump is currently under investigation by various US jurisdictions (BBC, Bloomberg, Politico). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (Cornell, see Definition (1), Legal Beagle). Contempt charges or citations imposed by a judge or judicial officer alone would not count (Cornell).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes, a federal crime only 18.09% +1.58% -1.46% +1.64%
Yes, a state crime only 11.81% +0.72% +1.55% +0.84%
Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime 19.79% +1.28% +6.86% +5.69%
No 50.30% -3.58% -6.96% -8.18%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username