tabhuth asks:

Between 12 August 2022 and 18 February 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and/or state crime in the US?

Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 18, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Former President Trump is currently under investigation by various US jurisdictions (BBC, Bloomberg, Politico). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (Cornell, see Definition (1), Legal Beagle). Contempt charges or citations imposed by a judge or judicial officer alone would not count (Cornell).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 19 February 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, a federal crime only 1%
Yes, a state crime only 3%
Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime 1%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 162
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 980
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.221804
2.
-0.220567
3.
-0.218548
4.
-0.218524
5.
-0.218428

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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