deannalfisher asks:

Before 30 September 2023, will the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approve a human birth control pill for sale over the counter (OTC)?

Started Sep 02, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 13, 2023 12:00PM UTC

In July 2022, HRA Pharma, a French pharmaceutical company, submitted an application to the FDA for what would be the first OTC birth control pill in the US (NPR, Politico, FDA - Prescription-to-Nonprescription (Rx-to-OTC) Switches). Approval with limits (e.g., age restrictions) would count. Emergency contraceptives would not count (FDA - Birth Control). Approval of a pill for sale OTC without a prescription but "behind the counter" would count (Forbes, National Institutes of Health ).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 13 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 75.04%
No 24.96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 271
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.168373
2.
-0.168373
5.
-0.157427

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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