Started Sep 09, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 15 March 2023?

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (Newsweek, Politico). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan, and military drones would count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 29.46% -0.11% +2.58% -8.27%
No 70.54% +0.11% -2.58% +8.27%

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