Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Hong Kong cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine in Hong Kong?

Started Sep 16, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 25, 2022 04:00PM UTC

In early August 2022, Hong Kong reduced the required time for travelers to quarantine, but compulsory quarantining remains in effect as part of its COVID protocols (, NPR, DestinAsian). For the purposes of this question, "outside of China" means anywhere other than the Chinese mainland, Macao, or Taiwan. The general removal of the requirements with exceptions would count so long as travel from at least six G7 nations is permitted without quarantine (Canada G7). An announcement that Hong Kong will cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine at some future date after 31 December 2022 would not count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 77.31%
No 22.69%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 72
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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