Started Sep 16, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 25, 2022 04:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Hong Kong cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine in Hong Kong?

In early August 2022, Hong Kong reduced the required time for travelers to quarantine, but compulsory quarantining remains in effect as part of its COVID protocols (Coronavirus.gov.hk, NPR, DestinAsian). For the purposes of this question, "outside of China" means anywhere other than the Chinese mainland, Macao, or Taiwan. The general removal of the requirements with exceptions would count so long as travel from at least six G7 nations is permitted without quarantine (Canada G7). An announcement that Hong Kong will cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine at some future date after 31 December 2022 would not count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 77.31%
No 22.69%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 72
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.863
2.
-0.735
3.
-0.59
4.
-0.587
5.
-0.574

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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