SE_Meyer asks:

What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for May 2023?

Started Sep 16, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The US housing market has begun to slow amid rising mortgage rates and general economic anxiety (US News & World Report, CNBC, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for May 2023 are first available, expected in July.

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The question closed "Higher than 300.000 but lower than 312.000" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 264.000 0%
Between 264.000 and 276.000, inclusive 0%
Higher than 276.000 but lower than 288.000 9%
Between 288.000 and 300.000, inclusive 56%
Higher than 300.000 but lower than 312.000 32%
Between 312.000 and 324.000, inclusive 3%
Higher than 324.000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 457
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.28
4.
-0.228

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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