Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 October 2023, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (Politico, Al Jazeera, FOXNews). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.
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Crowd Forecast Profile
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|Average for questions older than 6 months: 216|
|Number of Forecasts||667|
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