Started Sep 23, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 October 2023, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?

Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (Politico, Al Jazeera, FOXNews). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 22.32% -0.04% -0.12% +1.72%
No 77.68% +0.04% +0.12% -1.72%

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