Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 October 2023, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?
Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (Politico, Al Jazeera, FOXNews). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.