Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 October 2023, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?

Started Sep 23, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (Politico, Al Jazeera, FOXNews). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.33%
No 98.67%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 141
Average for questions older than 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 667
Average for questions older than 6 months: 607
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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