probahilliby asks:

When will the World Health Organization (WHO) announce the end of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) related to COVID-19?

Started Sep 30, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 05, 2023 01:24PM UTC

With the rise of vaccines and treatments along with moderated cases and deaths from COVID-19, there is speculation as to when WHO will declare an end to the PHEIC (Science.org, STAT, WHO - 30 January 2020). The question would close as of the effective date of the end of the PHEIC (e.g., WHO - 29 March 2016, Ebola PHEIC "termination" in 2016).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 1 April 2023 and 30 June 2023" with a closing date of 5 May 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2023 0%
Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023 1%
Between 1 April 2023 and 30 June 2023 17%
Not before 1 July 2023 82%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 215
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.358815
2.
-0.278013
3.
-0.258892
4.
-0.256838
5.
-0.237023

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username