What will be the closing value of the British pound to US dollar exchange rate on 12 May 2023?

Started Sep 30, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 12, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Fears of a UK recession, inflation, and the impact of government fiscal policy has seen the British pound fall to its lowest level versus the US dollar since the UK's decimalization in 1971 (Guardian, CNBC, Historic UK). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to "6M").

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "1.20 or higher" with a closing date of 12 May 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 0.90 0%
Between 0.90 and 0.95, inclusive 0%
Higher than 0.95 but lower than 1.00 0%
Between 1.00 and 1.05, inclusive 0%
Higher than 1.05 but lower than 1.10 0%
Between 1.10 and 1.15, inclusive 1%
Higher than 1.15 but lower than 1.20 1%
1.20 or higher 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 56
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 459
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username